据DeadCoins 网站数据显示，目前数字加密货币行业内约有800个已经失去活力的代币，而Coinopsy网站则直接预计最终死亡项目将超过1000 个。

ICO项目曾经风头无两，如今似已“币”满为患。那么，对于广大的投资者而言，究竟该如何客观分析一个ICO项目呢？

7月27日21:00，应「MarsBit创始学习群」轮值群主向亚贞、副群主徐英凯邀请，ICO Drops BD负责人Oleg分享了如何基于社区做ICO项目分析。

据Oleg介绍，ICO Drops是一个独立的ICO数据库和分析平台，拥有世界上最大的加密社区之一，在对ICO项目评级时主要考察风险率、投资回报率和炒作水平三个指标。

具体而言，风险评级会根据项目综合报告进行评估，包含团队、顾问等，投资回报率采用相对估值模型衡量，包含对竞争对手的价格比较等，炒作水平则通过监测项目的社会活动来评估，比如项目电报群关注者的增长情况以、消息数量等。

以下为Oleg分享原文，由MarsBit（微信：hxcj24h）整理：

一、关于ICO Drops

简单介绍下，ICO Drops的目标是在早期阶段找到好项目并与社区分享。现在，ICODrops作为一个媒介资源，分别拥有网站（每天25~30万独立访问量）、电报群（40k会员）和Twitter（56k粉丝）。

此外，ICO Drops还有一个投资部门，最新的项目组合包括：DxChain，Bgogo，BlockCloud，Aergo，Perlin，Origo，Certik，Ankr等。核心团队有40人。

ICO Drops与其他资源的区别是评估方法。我们的分析团队有3个小组：

1、沙箱。快速评估项目并就是否进入下一环节进行投票。只有获得一定比例肯定投票的项目才可能进入下一阶段。

2、工作组。我们为此阶段的每个项目制作一份报告，并将其发送给社区。在过去的2个月中，已经发布了90份ICO报告（占沙箱项目总数的5%~10％）。工作组由5个小组组成，每个团队都有特定领域的专家。他们负责某个板块：社会指标、团队、顾问和合作伙伴、WP、GitHub。团队的每份报告都由工作组中的其他4个团队进行检查，以实现客观性。

3、专家。他们做投票决定，决定项目是否在网站展示、利息水平（评级）和目标金额。

在任何阶段都不会收费，但你必须做一个好项目，这是在ICO Drops网站上列出的唯一机会。唯一的付费区域是网站头部的广告，但它仅适用于已经被网站选中的项目。

很抱歉介绍了这么多，但只有这些功能才能让这么大的社区信任我们。我们作为一个基金投资，会公布尽职调查的结果，同时向社区展示有趣的项目。我们的工作针对ETH投资回报率、利息水平和项目结果。

附表1：项目的投资回报率取决于ICO Drops的兴趣级别。

接下来我们将讨论ICO评估、TGE结构以及从社区角度会发生的事情。

二、目前ICO和TGE评估的主要趋势

该主题被称为“基于社区”方法的主要原因很简单，社区相信ICO项目，这是有效的，因为它会将利润带给基金和个人投资者。让我们看看从2017年春季开始的项目。不幸的是，从一个项目到另一个项目的快速销售和投资转移的方法，显示出比长期持有更好的结果。原因很简单，我们在炒作中进行投资，没有实际产品，没有投资控制机制和成本管理，没有详细的路线图。

如果我们将它们与“现实生活”的初创融资进行比较，大多数项目都会被高估。尽管如此，参与者的利益却得到了满足：

·项目获得快速融资。如果你只有一个想法和一个团队，这是不可能获得风险投资的；

·资金可以在很短的时间内从大量投资中获得可观的利润；

·私人投资者可以快速增加资本，而无需太多评估。

这不是一个长期模型，我们很高兴将来采用这种方法进行评估，不过仍然有以下消极趋势：

·没有人群销售的项目/人群销售百分比最小化，这破坏了去中心化本身。项目希望被出售给基金（有时会有很大的折扣），并通过表格、小测验等组织营销人群销售，导致普通投资者获得在好项目中投资机会的概率较低，利益消退，如果没有出现好项目，也不会提高参与程度。

·所有产品都被高估了。他们不需要数千万美元来解决不存在的问题，结果没有人控制所获得的手段。10亿美元是现有科技项目融资的巨额赠款，具有实际成果和真实团队，证明了他们的能力和优势，但在加密领域，它就像“不贪婪的指标”，当市场最终开始高估时，成千上万的ICO项目中只有几十个可能有当前的资本。

尽管如此，ICO市场仍获得了730亿美元。在2016年第二季度，ICO期间获得的平均资金数额首次在2018年第二季度下降。 然而，新项目的ICO部分仍然占有一小部分，市值排名前20的数字资产几乎占到总资本的90％（根据CMC）。

 三、基于社区的项目分析方法

现在最受欢迎的“来自现实世界”的加密资产评估模型建立在交换方程之上。Chris Buriniske通过GDP方法讨论协议评估，其中GDP是维持区块链工作所需的所有计算资源的成本（特别是消耗的处理能力、内存和互联网连接，每部分能力的增加，都会使得总结果成倍增长）。

网络的总价格将类似于货币供应量M的公式（在我们的例子中，所有已发行的通证），其中M= PQ / V; PQ（P（价格）x Q（数量）），这是用过的计算机资源总成本;V（循环速度）表示第二次在系统中使用通证的速度的值。

这种分析方法基于恒定数量的用户，但是用户数量可能会发生变化，数字资产持有的时间也会发生变化。与此同时，随着POS和分片技术的推出，PQ（链支持成本）将下降，而Velocity将在健康的生态系统中增长，从而降低加密资产的使用成本。这种划分技术协议的可能性，缺乏设计者的长期刺激以及货币化的复杂性将对协议价值的评估产生负面影响。

由于缺乏基本评估工具以及分阶段融资和投资保护机制，我们只能进行具有短期潜力的评估。责怪投资者寻求短期利润，就像把鱼扔进肮脏的水里，因为我们把一个袋子拉到了它上面，只有单个项目具有持有通证的潜力，但它们也取决于市场的波动性，而数字资产投资者则无权投票/获得分红，也无法使用该产品。

因此，在ICODrops方法中，有3个主要指标：风险率、投资回报率和炒作水平。关于该项目的最终报告会影响所有指标，但我想分别讨论每个指标的特征。

风险等级根据有关项目的总报告进行评估，包含指标、WP、团队、顾问、国家等，这更像是一种定性方法。

我们还尝试使用相对估值模型来衡量投资回报率：

与竞争对手的价格比较。项目质量、增长潜力是根据最近竞争对手的资本化来计算的。具体表格由社区填写，每个人都可以投票添加项目/竞争对手，并根据任何因素减少/增加潜力。该表还包括其他定性虚拟特征，未来我们想测试其他变量的价值并引入其中。

进行项目-顾问-资金的关系跟踪。 我们建立了一个表格，其中包含所有资金条目和项目的连接，并显示哪个顾问属于哪个项目。通过这张表，我们获得了基金和顾问“成功”的基础，并且具有一定数量的投资回报率。我们正考虑在未来的网站版本中发布此评级方法。

我们还保留了项目成功类别的一些数据，包括通证销售和各类指标。

一年多以来，通过ICO分析是成为ICO Drops会员的唯一流程。我们不做交易，我们不只是持有，我们不做营销、推广或咨询。我们的工作主要集中在社区管理和项目评估上。

通过监测项目的社会活动来评估炒作率是最后一个指标。 例如，任何用户都可以在我们的网站上输入“ICO Social”，并查看项目电报群关注者的增长情况以及消息数量和唯一活跃用户。

四、ICO筹款方式的发展

在这里说一下我们自己的观点。我们实际上汇总了一个大型加密社区的声音，尽管这种观点与商业模式相矛盾，这使我们目前获得了一些利润。

我们认为，即使没有监管机构，负责任的项目也可以得出结论：通过使用具有投资归属的智能合约可以建立稳定的模型。建立一个完全去中心化的融资体系，当团队根据社区投票结果收到部分资金时，在路线图符合投资者回购的可能性方面。

正常的规模销售与可能的关心有关，但没有任何“狂热”的彩票营销行为。社区的大多数人会选择进入公平分配代币的项目（即使预售锁定）。考虑到预售阶段CryptoFunds（非战略合作伙伴或种子投资者）通常只有两个功能：来自投资事实的营销效果以及减少可能性的事实，社区拥有越来越多的可能性和专业知识以及更少的上限流通。

在佣金/验证/赌注的生态系统中，通证使用的格式对投资者而言变得不那么有吸引力。现在挖矿交易所的普及程度正在增长，因为这是平台和代币实际使用的新形式。越来越多有趣的项目集中在回购和销毁代币上，而牺牲了平台上的佣金收益，因此将出现新的机制。

作为投资者的集合者，平台应该带来新的可能性。像Tokeneed和LeekICO这样的现有解决方案可以开发新功能：“了解用户”流程中的加密数据、评级系统/投资者分类、阶段融资。

一次又一次，团队犯同样的错误，这些错误与锁定和归属的糟糕计划、种子和私募的价格以及规模销售结构的方法等有关。这些问题经常出现是因为贪欲或因为募资的不确定性，因此基于路线图和目标的“好”指标标准迟早会应运而生。

嘉宾简介

Oleg / ICO Drops Head of BD

Oleg拥有丰富的财务背景和创业经验。他所在的ICODrops是一个独立的ICO数据库和分析平台，拥有世界上最大的加密社区之一。

对话发起人

向亚贞/ QuarkChain Fouding Partner & CMO

上海交大本科，Johns Hopkins硕士，在华尔街与硅谷工作7年，曾先后任职于Argus,LinkedIn, Wish等世界名企，具有专业的金融、咨询与技术背景。在QuarkChain主要负责市场，运营，公关等事务，对QuarkChain在全球启动、受到密切关注和好评起了重要作用。

徐英凯Kevin/ BlockVC创始人

QuarkChain顾问，伦敦大学学院（UCL）计算机统计学与机器学习硕士，曾供职于瑞士信贷、闪银奇异、鼎铭金融等大型金融科技企业；曾参与ETF产品设计和产业基金管理，管理规模超过10亿人民币；目前其区块链资产管理规模超过2亿美金，所投资项目包括：QuarkChain,NKN, Celer Network, IoTex, DxChain, VeChain, Republic Protocol, Certik等。

附英文分享原文：

1. ICO Drops introduction

Small introduction. The purpose of ICO Drops isto find and share good projects with the community at an early stage. Now ICODrops is a media resource with a web site (25-30k unique visitors per day),Telegram community (40k members) and Twitter (56k followers). Also, ICO Dropshas an investment division with a portfolio of projects (latest): DxChain,Bgogo, BlockCloud, Aergo, Perlin, Origo, Certik, Ankr etc. There are 40 peopleon the core team.

Distinction from other resources: approach toassessment. The analytical team has 3 groups:

1.      Sandbox.Quick assessment of the project and voting on transfer on the next stage. Onlythe projects that obtain a certain percentage of affirmative votes, may gofurther.

2.      Workinggroup. We make a report for every project on this stage and sent it to thecommunity. For the last 2 months, 90 ICO reports have been published (5-10%from the total number of projects in sandbox). The working group consists of 5teams. Each team has expert in a given area. They are responsible for a certain block: social metrics; team; advisersand partners; WP; GitHub. Each report of the team is checked by the other 4teams in the working group to achieve objectivity.

3.      Experts.They make a voted decision about listing the project on the website, theinterest level (rating) and our desire to receive allocation. 

I’m sorry for a rather large introduction. Butonly these features allow such a big community to trust us. We invest as a fundand publish the results of our due diligence, showing interesting projects tothe community at their early stage at the same time.
Our job is targeted on ETH ROI; and the interest level correlates with theproject results.

2. Main trends in the current assessment of ICO and TGE

The main reason why the subject is called the«community based» approach is simple. The community believes in the ICO project– and this is the one, which works and which brings the profit to funds andindividual investors. Let’s forget about the top 20-30 CMC and look at theprojects which started from spring 2017. Unfortunately, the approach of quicksell and investment transfer from one project to another shows far betterresult than long hodl. The reason is simple – we make our investments in hype.There are no working products, no mechanism of investments control and costsmanage, no detailed roadmaps. A majority of projects are overvalued, if wecompare them with “real life” start-up financing. Despite this, the interestsof the participants are met:

This cannot be a long-term model, so we arehappy to adapt the approach to the assessment in future. We still have thefollowing negative trends:

Projectswithout crowd sale / with minimal percentage of crowd sale, which disrupts thedecentralization itself. A wish to be sold to the funds (sometimes with hugediscounts) and to organize the marketing crowd sale with forms, quizzes, proofof love & proof of caring, and with lottery, leads to situations when anordinary investor has lower chances of getting in good projects. The interestfades. Working projects do not appear, which also does not increase the levelof involvement.

Allproducts are extremely overvalued. They do not require tens of millions $ forsolving non-existent problems. As a result, there is nobody to control theobtained means. $10Mis a huge grant for financing of the already existingscientific projects with real results and real teams, who proved theircompetence and advantages over the other ones. In crypto btw it’s like “notgreedy metrics”. Only dozens from the thousands of ICOs may have their currentcapitalization, when the market finally starts to overvalue.

Nevertheless, the ICO market obtained 7.3 bln. in Q2 18, and the average amountof funds, obtained during ICO, decreased in Q2 2018 for the first time.However, a segment of ICO of new projects still has a small share, and the top20 of coins are close to 90% of the total capitalization (according to the CMC).

3. Projects analysis and community based approach.

The mostpopular model of assessment of crypto assets “from the real world” now is builton the equation of exchange. Chris Buriniske discusses the protocol assessmentvia GDP approach, where GDP is the cost of all computing resource, required tomaintain the work of blockchain (notably, the consumed processing power, memoryand internet connection, multiplied by the value of each of them). The totalprice of the network will be similar to the formula of the money supply M (inour case, all released tokens), where M = PQ/V; PQ (P (price) x Q(quantity)) — this is the total cost of the used computer resources; V(circulation velocity) — this is the value showing how fast token is used inthe system for the second time. This approach to analysis is based on aconstant number of users. But the number of users may change, as well as thetime of coin hold. At the same time, PQ (chain support cost) will fall with theintroduction of POS and Sharding, while Velocity will grow in a healthyecosystem, decreasing the costs of usage of crypto assets. Such possibilitiesto fork the technical protocols, absence of designers’ long-term stimulus andcomplexity in monetization will make a negative impact on the assessment of theprotocol’s value.

Because of the absence of the instruments of fundamental assessment andmechanisms of staged financing and investment protection, we can only make anassessment with a short-term potential. Blaming investors for looking for a momentaryprofit is the same as blaming a fish in dirty water for us pulling out a bagthat got stuck to it. Only single projects have a token-holding potential. Butthey depend on market volatility, too, and coin hodl gives the investor noright to vote / receive dividends and no possibility of using the product.

So, in ICO Drops approach there are 3 main indicators: Risk rate, ROIrate and Hype ate. The final report on the project affects all indicators, butI would like to talk about the features of each separately.

Risk level is assessed on the basis of the total reportabout the project: metrics, WP, team and advisers, country etc. Long roadmap,unprofessional team, lack or greedy metrics, country and industry risks. Thisis more like a qualitative approach.

We also tryto measure the ROI level by usingrelative valuation models:

 Price comparison with the rivals. Wehave a table, where each project stands in opposition to its rivals. Dependingon the project quality, the growth potential is calculated on the basis ofcapitalization of the nearest rivals. This table is filled by the community,everybody can vote to add a project/rival and decrease/ increase the potentialdepending on any factors. The table also includes qualitative dummycharacteristics: listing on large stock markets, team relationship withmarketing, fund presence, whether the project was listed on pump or dump. Laterwe would like to test the value of other variables and introduce them: networkvalue to transaction ratio, significance of holders’ structure on coinbehaviour (what decentralization level and average user’s balance). A largefield for investigations.

 We do the relations tracking:project – adviser –funds. We built a table, which has a links of entries of allfunds into the projects and shows which adviser belonged to which project. Withthis table, we got the base of “successfulness” of funds and advisers withcertain specific numbers of their ROI. We’re now thinking about publishing thisrating in the future versions of the website (we’re now preparing a bigupdate). We’re also planning to publish a list of “red” advisers.

We also keep statistics of thesuccessful categories of the projects, token sale formats and metrics.

For more than a year, ICO analysisis the only stream of ICO Drops Members. We do no trade, we don’t just hold, wedon’t do marketing, promotion or advisory. Our job is concentrated on communitymanagement and project assessment.

The last indicator of Hype rate is assessed by monitoring of thesocial activity of the project. For example, any user can enter “ICO Social” onour website and look at the growth of followers of project’s Telegram and thenumber of messages and unique active users.

4. Development of the format of funds development byusing ICO

Expressing our own opinion here, we literally aggregate the voice of alarge crypto community, even though this opinion contradicts with the businessmodel which enables us to gain some profit at the moment.

1. Webelieve that responsible projects even without regulators can come to theconclusion that a stable model may be built by using smart contracts withinvestment vesting. Creation of a completely decentralized financing system,when the team receives the funds in parts according to the results of communityvoting, in terms of roadmap compliance with the possibility of buy back forinvestors.

2.Normalcrowd sale with a possible proof of care, but without any “fanatical” lotteriesfor marketing. Most part of the community will choose the option of a projectentering with fair distribution of tokens (even with presale lock-up). Thecommunity has more and more possibilities and expertise and less caps, takinginto account the fact that presale stage Crypto Funds (not strategic partnersor seed investors) often have only 2 functions: marketing effect from the factof investment, and the possibility to decrease the circulation.

3.New formsof utility. The format of token usage in ecosystem as commissions/ validation/staking becomes lessattractive for the investor. Popularity of mining exchanges now grows becausethis is a new format of real use of platforms and tokens. More and moreinteresting projects are concentrated on buy back and burning tokens at theexpense of commission earnings on the platform. New mechanics will appear.

4.Theplatforms, as aggregators for investor, should bring new possibilities. Theexisting solutions like Tokeneed & LeekICO may develop new features:encrypted data of KYC, rating system/ investor classification, stage financing.

5. Timeafter time the teams make the same mistakes related to bad planning of lock-upand vesting, prices for seed & private, caps and approach to crowd salestructure. Frequently these problems appear either because of greed or becauseof uncertainty in being able to gain funds. A “good” standard of metrics basedon roadmap and aims should appear. 

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